Financial Model & Projections

Comprehensive financial analysis and projections for Bio-Stride's portable TBI diagnostic device, validated by 50+ customer interviews and conservative market assumptions

Executive Overview

Target Market Size
₹1,328 Cr
100,000 emergency rooms + ambulances
Device Price
₹1.5 Lakh
100X cheaper than CT scan
Gross Margin
83%
Premium positioning justified
Break-even
FY 2027
2 years post-launch

Key Assumptions & Drivers

Product Pricing

  • Hardware Device: ₹1.5 Lakh
  • Test Cartridges: ₹400 per test
  • SaaS Platform: ₹50,000 annually
📊

Market Penetration

  • Target: 10% over 5 years
  • 30,000 ambulances
  • 70,000 emergency rooms
🔧

Operational Metrics

  • 20 tests per device monthly
  • 70% pilot conversion rate
  • 2-3 month sales cycle

Revenue Projections

Monthly Projections (Sep 2025 - Feb 2026)

Month Devices Sold Device Revenue Cartridge Revenue SaaS Revenue Total Revenue
Sep-25 5 ₹7,50,000 ₹2,96,000 ₹12,500 ₹10,58,500
Oct-25 8 ₹12,00,000 ₹3,60,000 ₹15,000 ₹15,75,000
Nov-25 10 ₹15,00,000 ₹4,40,000 ₹18,333 ₹19,58,333
Dec-25 15 ₹22,50,000 ₹5,60,000 ₹23,333 ₹28,33,333
Jan-26 20 ₹30,00,000 ₹7,20,000 ₹30,000 ₹37,50,000
Feb-26 25 ₹37,50,000 ₹9,20,000 ₹38,333 ₹47,08,333

Revenue Growth Trajectory

From ₹10.6 Lakhs in Sep 2025 to ₹47.1 Lakhs in Feb 2026 - a 4.4x growth in 6 months with an average monthly growth rate of 35%

Unit Economics

Customer LTV (5 Years)
₹8,80,000
Device + Cartridges + SaaS
Customer Acquisition Cost
₹5,000
Direct sales + Marketing
LTV/CAC Ratio
176:1
Exceptional unit economics
Payback Period
<2 months
Rapid capital recovery

Cost Structure Breakdown

Component Cost per Unit Selling Price Gross Margin
Device Hardware ₹25,000 ₹1,50,000 83.3%
Test Cartridge ₹80 ₹400 80.0%
SaaS Platform ₹5,000/year ₹50,000/year 90.0%

Scenario Analysis

Base Case

₹50 Cr

10% penetration
₹1.5L device price

Optimistic

₹85 Cr

15% penetration
₹2.0L device price

Conservative

₹32 Cr

7% penetration
₹1.2L device price

Worst Case

₹20 Cr

5% penetration
₹1.0L device price

Key Performance Indicators

KPI Target Current Status Measurement Method
Device Sales Growth 25% MoM Pre-launch Units sold
Cartridge Utilization 20 tests/device/month Validated in pilots Total tests/Active devices
Gross Margin >80% 83% (projected) (Revenue-COGS)/Revenue
CAC Payback <60 days <30 days (projected) CAC/(Monthly gross profit)
Pilot Conversion >70% In progress Paying customers/Total pilots
NPS Score >70 75 (pilot feedback) Customer surveys

Funding Requirements & Milestones

Capital Requirements (18 Months)

  • R&D Completion: ₹50 Lakhs
  • Regulatory Approval: ₹30 Lakhs
  • Initial Manufacturing: ₹40 Lakhs
  • Working Capital: ₹60 Lakhs
  • Marketing & Sales: ₹20 Lakhs

Total Requirement: ₹2 Crores

Key Milestones

  • Q3 2025: Complete product development
  • Q4 2025: Regulatory submission
  • Q1 2026: Commercial launch
  • Q2 2026: Scale to 100+ devices
  • FY 2027: Break-even achieved

Path to Profitability

Profitability Timeline

Interactive chart showing path from current ₹8L/month burn to profitability by FY2027

Current State
-₹8L/month
Pre-revenue burn
Sep 2025
+CM
Positive contribution margin
Dec 2025
+EBITDA
Operational profitability
Mar 2026
+FCF
Free cash flow positive

Risk Analysis & Mitigation

Risk Factor Impact Probability Mitigation Strategy
Regulatory Delay High Medium 12-month cash buffer + early engagement with CDSCO
Competition Medium Low Patent protection + first-mover advantage + cost leadership
Adoption Rate Medium Medium Pilot programs with outcome guarantees + KOL endorsements
Supply Chain Low Low Multiple vendors + 90-day inventory + local sourcing

Industry Benchmark Validation

Industry Gross Margin
~60%
POC Medtech average
Bio-Stride Gross Margin
83%
23% above industry
EBITDA Multiple
20-25×
Early-stage medtech
Revenue Multiple
5-15×
Pre-revenue stage